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Hedge fund mogul Steve Cohen: The probability of a U.S. recession is about 45%.

Steve Cohen, the billionaire investor and founder of hedge fund Point72AssetManagement known as Wall Street's craziest money-making machine, told the SohnInvestmentConference in New York on Wednesday: "We're not in a recession yet, but economic growth has slowed significantly." Cohen, 68, said he did not expect the Fed to cut rates immediately because "they're going to be concerned about tariff-induced inflation." He predicted that U.S. economic growth would slow to 1.5 percent or less next year, "an acceptable level, but not a bright one." He noted that April's stock market rout and rally had been unusual in the speed of reversal, and stressed that he was closely monitoring the market's reaction to the next round of U.S. economic data. Even if the market does fall, he expects the decline to be between 10% and 15%, "which is not catastrophic". He also added that the U.S. stock market is likely to remain sideways for some time. (Jin Ten)